Misunderstanding Trends

Sun Tzu's strategy teaches us to see beyond change to the hidden systems driving change. Dynamic systems consist of complementary opposites as the driving forces that both compete with and feed off of each other. In any environment, the most dominant such forces are called "climate" and "ground," the force of change and the base of stability. New systems tend to shift dramatically back and forth before they find stability between competing forces. For example, notice how in the Republican race in 2007 has consisted of a series of "booms" where dominant leaders emerge briefly only to fall back shortly later. First, Guiliani was dominant, then Romney was rising, then Thompson was rising, now Huckabee, and perhaps soon McCain. Even Ron Paul has his moments. This chaotic "sloshing" indicates that interest in any given candidate is pretty shallow, and few are heavily invested (grounded) in any one position.