Rediscovering Strategy

As we noted in the last post, momentum comes only from surprise. As those unfamiliar with strategy observe this effect, it always surprises them. For example, in a recent article about the presidential primaries, the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder observes:
Momentum seems to skip the next state up and seems to benefit the person who exceeded expectations, rather than the winner.
The benefit of actually studying strategy is that you can expect this to happen beforehand instead of being surprised by it.