As I have written a thousand times before, the most common strategic error is thinking of competitive environments as controlled and predictable. This mistake is most commonly made by those who are used to being in control within controlled environments. One of the basic result of strategic cognition is that competitive environments are not controlled environments. For example, the media, politicos, and pundits keeps saying asking what Hillary is fighting for, since Obama nearly has the nomination wrapped up. What Hillary realizes and all the experts are missing is that the real situation is that, if nothing changes
, Obama nearly has the nomination wrapped up. Oh, and things are always
There is a story I tell in my seminars about a king who condemns a con-man to death, but the con-man talks his way out of quick death by convincing the king that, if given three months, he can teach the king's horse to talk, If he fails, the king can spend three-months torturing him to death. A friend asks the con-man if it was wise to trade a quick, painless death for a long, painful one for just a few months of life.
"You never know what will happen," the con-man explained. "In three months, the king could die; the horse could die, or I could die. And, you never know, the horse could
Similarly, in the three month's before the Democratic convention, we don't know what could happen. Given Obama's predilection for making mistakes
, Hillary would be a fool to quit.
UPDATE: Apparently, Hillary thinks that king could die