So, we get a real time example of how surprise changes momentum. As I predicted (here
), the announcement of Palin changed the entire feeling of the race. The Democratic convention was completely unsurprising and (except for the level of disunity, which isn't good) had no affect on the momentum of the race. Obama didn't even recapture the lead that he has lost over the last few month. Until Obama can do something surprising, the momentum will stay with McCain. Can Obama do something surprising? Why not? However, creating a surprise that advances a position requires a good understanding of relative positions and my concern for Obama is that can't get perspective of his situation. His single biggest problem (and the problem of Democratic candidates for years, is that the media shares Democratic candidates views to such a degree that the Democratic candidates always think they are on better ground than they really are.