tell us much less than good strategic analysis about who will win a contest, but we have been saying for weeks that as long as the war is the issue, no matter how bad the news, Bush wins. The
latest pull by USA Today/CNN/Gallup
shows that despite (of rather because of) problems Iraq and 9/11 hearings, Bush
is moving up in the polls against Kerry to 51% to 46%. Kerry will blame Bush's
advertising, missing the point entirely. Analysis of key states show a bigger
gap, with Bush winning by about 50 electoral college votes. Kerry must start changing the image of the Democratic party regarding defense or he will not be the nominee in August, no matter how many
delegates he has. He will be so far behind by then, that the Democratic
Convention will have to go another way to have a chance to succeed.