"Guns-a-blazing" - ObamaCare Desperation Time

Fans of train wrecks should enjoy the continuing health care battle. In a recent article of this topic, we used it to explain Sun Tzu's "Limited Situation," the penultimate stage in a campaign (6.4.8 Limited Situations). After explaining how the appropriate methods were not being used, that article ended with a simple prediction:

This means that the bill is either dead or it moves to the final situation, the Desperate Situation, if the Demos really want to go there (6.4.9 Desperate Situations).

Sad to say, President Obama has decided to take this contest to its final, most dangerous stage. In doing so, he seems intent on proving his critics' accusations that he is a slow learner.

After squandering his popularity and key political edge on an unpopular proposal, the White House and Democratic Congressional leadership are preparing to double down, using an even more unpopular political process called, ironically, "reconciliation."

"They are coming out of the summit guns-a-blazing," one Democratic insider describe it. "And they're committed to reconciliation."

We usually only go into desperate situations when we have no choice. The odds of winning are low and, worse, the stakes at risk are so high since the only way to win is to gamble everything we have. Quoting an AP article:

"It's a high-stakes situation for him more than anybody else," said Gerald Shea, the top health care adviser for the AFL-CIO. "If the judgment is either that it's a political farce, or if it fails to move the ball forward significantly ... that would be very damaging to the issue and to him."

Given the probabilities, it is easy to predict that Obama will lose this final stage of battle. And, even if he wins, it will be a Pyrrhic victory since it will cost him and his party dearly in the next election.

The question is why? The fact that representatives of the administration say that they are even willing to back the public option, an policy that failed to pass either house, seems to indicate that this is more about being true to an ideology than winning.

Does it make anyone else nervous that we seem to have a president that prefers a glorious, costly defeat to a quiet, survivable defeat?

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