Weighing Opportunities

Question: 

Should I quit Android development to focus on VR development?

Gary's Answer: 

No, the rules of strategy indicate that you should move into Alexa/Echo development rather than VR. Basic strategy teachers us to pursue the most potential, that is the newest and fastest growing opportunities rather than smaller. Golden Key Strategy also teaches us to make the smallest possible moves because they are the safest and most certain.

In your situation, Alexa is better the VR for three reasons:

  1. Size of Opportunity: The market for Alexa based devices is hundreds of times bigger than that for VR.
  2. Window of Opportunity: The market is much newer than VR, so others are not as far ahead of you,
  3. Distance to Opportunity: The move from Android to Alexa is much easier than moving to VR.

Size: Alexa/Echo is a platform whose potential is comparable to the PC, IOS, or Android. VR is a technology looking for an application. Generally speaking, platforms are better than applications and applications better than technologies. VR has a limited potential in size, relegated to a few niches like games. If it is successful, it will grow out of game existing game engines, not create a platform for entirely new apps.

However, as a platform for voice controlled devices, Alexa devices will become as common, perhaps more common, than smartphones. Many machines, such as elevators, will incorporate this technology directly, However, many will replace their own control concepts and feedback systems with external devices like the Echo Show. When every household has a Show, why not integrate with the household instead of adding your own control panels to your washer or drying or printer or stereo? Display your control panel on the Echo Show screen.

Window: VR has been around for what? Ten years? Longer? During that time, it has always been ten years away from success. It may always be. Other than in games, another mature market, its application in everyday life remains unproven. However, despite being only two years old, Echo technology has taken off like a rocket. The Echo Show technology, which is where this concept is going longer term, it even newer, less than a year old. This window is wide open. You are not getting in line behind people with a decade more experience than you have.

Distance: This is true whether you were creating apps for Android or doing system work in Android. In either case, moving to Alexa/Echo, another platform, is not as great as moving to a graphics technology. If you were moving from, say, 3D modeling and printing, it would be less of a stretch. However, with your experience, Alexa/Echo seems an ideal opportunity.