Surprise and the big picture are my most common topics recently. Most people work so closely to their situation that they miss the big picture. This leads inevitably to surprise. We are seeing great examples of this in the presidential primaries. For example, when the pundits look at primary results in S. Carolina, they see that Fred Thompson took third and conclude that he should drop out. However, strategically, it is possible to never win a battle and eventually win the war. These primary results really mean that the Republican nominee is much more likely to be everyone's second choice as McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and Guilliani go into the convention deadlocked. This helps Thompson because the divisions among other candidates run so deep. Strangely enough, pundits don't even realize that Huckabee was the only real loser in SC and Thompson played a major role in that loss. After all the press Huckabee had gotten, he was expected to win. This loss destroys his momentum (though probably not his good media) before Super Tuesday and likely dooms his run.