Predicting the Future: A Landslide for McCain?

Sun Tzu's strategy teaches the predicting the future is very dangerous. The most important aspect of competition cannot be predicted. Most events are unexpected and what really matters is knowing how to react to them. Recently this article predicting a landslide for McCain got a lot of attention but its main thesis is simply that there is a lot of time left for Obama's arrogance to create opportunities. This may well be true, but an opponent's mistakes have to be utilized and McCain has shown little ability in doing this. A more insightful article is this one by Rich Lowry, which points out that Hillary had already demonstrated what it takes to beat Obama and would have won against him if she had been more aggressive earlier. The problem, of course, is that McCain isn't aggressive at all in terms of positioning Obama. Lowry's ideas about positioning McCain as experienced and Obama as untried is very close to the mark, but McCain shouldn't attack Obama as Lowry suggests. Given Obama's advantage in funding and press sympathy and his current leads, McCain should not attack Obama at all. What McCain needs is simply to propose a simple idea that most people could agree with. Can McCain convince the American people Obama is bad for America? He shouldn't even try. He should simply work to convince a majority of voters that Obama needs years more political experience and public exposure before the American people can judge whether or not he is worthy of the job. We just don't know now and we won't no matter how many more speeches we hear. No matter how you feel about him as a personality, his experience in local academia and Chicago politics is simply not enough to prepare him to be president. Issues are only evidence for the BIG ISSUE, which should be if Obama is experienced enough to lead and if the American people know enough about him to trust him with the job. Whether you agree with his judgment on one issue or the other, we can all agree that we don't know enough about him to trust him with a job this big. This is a point that McCain might be capable of making, but like most politicians, he thinks like Lowry that elections are about issues, but they simply aren't. They are about only one big questions: do we know enough to trust this guy or the other.