Let me preface by saying that strategy teaches you NOT to make long-term predictions because, by definition, situations can be changed by people making the right decisions. Sun Tzu's strategy is more about recognizing opportunities as they arise and taking advantage of them. That said, I was asked by the Coast to Coast Radio Show to do a series of predictions for 2005 to discuss during my interview on the 19th. Here is my list:
1. Other governments in Middle East visibly start embracing democracy and freeing their economies.
2. Increasing pressures for change of government in (pick one) Iran, Syria, and N. Korea
3. Kofi Anan steps down from UN. Corruption is proven to be widespread within the organization.
4. America begins withdrawing troops from Iraq though violence continues in region.
5. Increasing recognition of structural flaws in UN, proposals for new types of international organizations.
6. Economy in the US grows at high rate, approximately 5%, especially small business sector.
7. Economies in â€œoldâ€ Europe continue to lag in face of growing competition creating several financial problems in region
8. 200,000 more people die in the Darfur region of Sudan until America (probably NATO) steps in with troops
9. Murdock starts a more conservative news network in Europe
10. Drug companies and Canada reach agreement that cuts off selling cheap drugs into US
11. Bush passes tort reform but either Social Security or tax reform gets stalled in Congress this year
12. Appleâ€™s Ipod sales start declining as features move to phones
13. Successful movies and televisions shows increasingly focus on traditional (rather than progressive) values and themes