At the beginning of this year, I made a number of predictions
for my interview on Coast-to-Coast AM, the national radio show, in January. To get out of the military, political arena, I predicted the the Ipod was doomed because this year its features (and a lot of others) would move into phones and now, here they are (phone with music
, phone with camera
). While not all of my predictions have come true yet (the year is still young) I think I am doing surprisingly well. Some of these things look obvious now ( like democracy moving through the Middle East and withdrawal of troops from Iraq) but they were far from obvious when I made them.
I often say that strategy is a science. The thing that separates science from opinion is that it can be tested. Our ability to make strategic decisions is derived directly from our ability to make good predictions about what will happen in a given course of action. Strategy models the world. Models are useful when they allow you to predict what will accurately happen. That said, I must again caution about Sun Tzu's warnings about long-term planning. The idea is to remain flexible because the world is much more chaotic than flexible.