With a little over three months until the Democratic Convention at the end of July, Kerry has already made five strategic errors that will force Democratic leadership to ask him to step down. Sun Tzu teaches us to look at the trend of change and plan our strategy to leverage those trends. Kerry has taken positions against the five most powerful trends in the future.
Kerry has championed the need to get U.N.'s and Old Europe's support in Iraq, but over the next 3 months much of the corruption of the UN-European-Iraq connection will be exposed.
Kerry has tried to placate the anti-war wing of his party and over the next three months the news of the War (turnover of power in Iraq, Saddam's trial, 9.11 committee reports, increase military activity, and possibly bin Laden's capture) will make anyone who is tepid on strong defense a sure loser.
Kerry is raising a great deal of money but he is spending it on advertising bashing Bush rather than establishing a strong strategic position of his own. By the end of July, the failure of this approach will be apparent.
Kerry's refusal to release all his military records and his wife's tax return will continue to grow as an issue as the natural instincts of the press keeps them searching for reasons why.
The one economic issue Kerry is campaigning on, the jobs market, will improve dramatically over the next three months, while issues that he has ignored, such as interests rates, will deteriorate. Kerry made jobs the central test of the Bush's economic management and Bush will have passed that test by the end of July.
Sun Tzu teaches that one key to strategy is foreseeing the trends of the future. Kerry has campaigned without any foresight at all.