GaryGagliardi's blog

More Important to Security than New Bureaucracies?

Reading this story, it occurs to me that there should be a nationwide hotline (1-800-4terror?) for ordinary people to report suspicious behavior. Classical strategy teaches that gathering information at the lowest levels is a lot more important than reorganizing bureaucracies at the top level, which seems to be the focus of the politicians. Not only that, but advertising such a number would dramatically change the psychology of terrorists operating in

Jobs Data and Bush Strategy

Today's job report is being reported as very negative for President Bush, but--as Sun Tzu teaches--it is not the trends themselves, but how they are leveraged that matters. Given that we expect the President to campaign on a strong ownership theme, this job report may actually be strategic for the president making his case about private ownership.

Threats and Terror Strikes

The media component of the War on Terror continues to give free advertising to Al Qaeda every time the terrorists make a threat. Once they start reporting that these threats are ALWAYS hollow, we will know that we have turned the corner in the War on Terror. Every time Al Qaeda makes a threat in the media, they have never been able to follow through on it. Sun Tzu spends a considerable time teaching the we must judge opponents by their actions and not their words and, even then, we must expect feints. ALL of Al Qaeda's successful attacks have been launched without warning.

Contradicting the Last Entry

To contradict the last post (predicting the long term future) as soon as possible, I want to point out that there is a nice opportunity for Kerry in the rising prices of oil. Instead of spending 30 million talking about jobs, Kerry should start talking up the rising price of oil and its affect on the economy. The rising price of oil may be with us through the election and it is something that consumers get excited about. It is also something that was a

Judging Priorities from Action and Inaction

Sun Tzu teaches us that success comes both from what we do and what we don't do. I notice that several Kerry supporters (for example here) are saying that the Republican attacks on Kerry for his votes in Congress are unjustified because Kerry had good reasons for his votes that are not being explained. However, by this analysis, we can’t tell anything about any legislator’s voting record because ALL bills have bad components.

No Convention Bump? What a Surprise...

We predicted that the Democrats would come out of the convention with a solid 15% lead IF they nominated ANYONE but Kerry. Because they didn't have the courage to face the fact that Kerry had failed to establish a viable strategic position, they have virtually doomed themselves to defeat. Their almost historic lack of a post-convention "bump" is merely evidence of the fact. Events could still change the course of the election and create

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