GaryGagliardi's blog

The Wrong Questions

In discussion of Iraq, people keep bringing up the wrong issues. The only relevant question is: are we in a better position to oppose terrorism with our army in Iraq or not? Nothing else matters. People who want to claim that Saddam wasn't involved in 9/11 or that since we haven't found his WMDs yet, our invasion was wrong, miss the point. This is a war. 9/11 made the country wake up to the fact that we have been at war for 25 years, since the attack on our embassy in Iran. Saddam had a WMD programs and used WMDs. The danger that he would give them to terrorists (and maybe did given

How Big Is The Iraqi Resistance?

When the press describes as a "huge, fierce" battle wounds two or three soldiers, we know something is wrong with our sense of scale. This doesn't mean that we can't say infer real facts about the size of the resistance in Iraq. If we know the number of dead Iraqi insurgents, we can calculate at least the largest possible number of people fighting against the US. The lowest percentage of dead in conventional, modern wars is one dead for every sixteen fighters. This was the percentage of US dead in WW1, WWII, and Korean.

Explosion in North Korean

Sun Tzu tells us that we can know the truth only by analyzing the details. We don't have to know the real truth about the train explosion in North Korea to know that the North Koreans are making up a story about a trainload of explosives hit electrical wires. By simply looking at the pictures, we know that no one who was near enough to see what happened could have survived. Certainly, this story was released before a forensics team (do they have

A Test of the Religion of Environmentalism

On Earth Day, we should remember that environmentalism is no longer a scientific movement (which I support) and instead has become a fanatical religion. The tenents of this religion costs us 1-2 million lives a year and has cost us 30-60 million human lives over the last 30 years (see American Council on Science and Health article here). On May 28th, THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW, a movie on environmental disaster, opens. Its acceptance or lack thereof is the same kind of test for the religion of

The Future of Government in the Muslim World

Amir Taheri, a Muslim analyst I read religiously, points out that by defeating Saddam in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan, we revealed the bankruptcy the two dominate political directions in the Muslim world. Iraq was the endpoint of long-term trend toward leftist national socialism. Afghanistan's Taliban showed what happens under the newer movement toward Islamic fundamentalism. With both directions debunked, Muslims all over the world are taking a new look at democracy. Read the whole thing.

Five Reasons Why Kerry Won't Be the Democratic Nominee

With a little over three months until the Democratic Convention at the end of July, Kerry has already made five strategic errors that will force Democratic leadership to ask him to step down. Sun Tzu teaches us to look at the trend of change and plan our strategy to leverage those trends. Kerry has taken positions against the five most powerful trends in the future. Kerry has championed the need to get U.N.'s and Old Europe's support in Iraq, but over the next 3 months much of the corruption of the UN-European-Iraq connection will be exposed.

Accreditation for the Media

Like many people, I am continually amazed by how little people who report the news seem to understand about basic economics and science, to say nothing about basic strategic principles. You know what would make great sense? Some sort of accreditation system for reporters and editors in the media showing that they were tested and certified as having a basic understanding of science and economics before reporting the news.

Kerry's Mistakes Mount

Now Kerry won't release his military medical records and his wife won't release their tax returns. This is hopeless. My interest is in having a close, competitive election. Competition makes everyone better. I have worked for both Republicans and Democrats and both sides have good people. For months, we have said that Kerry was a bad choice and the early nomination of any Democratic candidate was a bad idea. Kerry failed to establish a strong strategic position and I can no longer even imagine a set of circumstances that will arrest his downward spiral.

Bush's Poll Numbers

Poll numbers tell us much less than good strategic analysis about who will win a contest, but we have been saying for weeks that as long as the war is the issue, no matter how bad the news, Bush wins. The

Bin Laden's Offer of Truce With Europe

Sun Tzu says "Your enemy comes to you in a conciliatory manner. He needs to rest and recuperate. Your enemy tries to sue for peace but without offering a treaty. He is plotting."
Bin Laden's latest announcement offering peace to Europe strong supports our contention that the strategy of terror is to win advertising and that killing people is just a method for doing so. Far from being a religious person, bin Laden's latest reveals that he


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