The mainstream media always boils competitive contests down to a single number in a poll, but strategy teaches us to think about all five factors in a strategic position rather than a single one-dimensional snapshot. This is particularly important in presidential politics because presidents are not elected by popular vote, but by winning states in fifty different winner-take-all battles. These fifty different battleground are complicated by their dynamic nature, which may indicate trends. Those trends indicate where things might be going a few months from now.

Sun Tzu saw everything in life as part of a competitive challenge. He taught that every organization is always competing with all other (and everyone within an organization is competing with each other). For this point of views, we have to recognize that the media, as the fourth estate, has always been in competition with the other three estates--religion, the government, and the people. The high point for the mainstream media (network television and the major newspapers) was the resignation of Nixon.

In earlier posts, we have discussed both cycle of three that typifies losing causes (like the "uprising" of al Sadr's Mahdi army), but we have also discussed the growing war between Iran and Iraq.

Sun Tzu teaches that there are battles that you must not fight. The question is, where do people draw the line. In modern politics, almost any behavior can be defended these days.

I have been concerned about the illness of Sistani, head of the Hawza Shiites, who want to separate government and religion. Long-term, the current problems with Al Sadr are relatively unimportant except as a side show . The real battle here is between Iraq and Iran, the new democracy and the mullatocracy. Al Sadr is financed by Iran and, after Al Sadr is gone, Iran will still be