Predictions of the Future

I have been working getting new testing software working on the website (, which has been broken since moving to a new host. As I was getting a test up on the new software, one of the questions related to Sun Tzu's claim that if you understand strategy, you can predict the future with a greater accuracy than those who don't. With this in mind, I thought I might makes some predictions. Elections in Iraq?

Kerry's Long-term Strategy

Sun Tzu teaches the persistence is a critical part of competitive success. Already, as we can see in this report, Kerry is doing a much better job than Gore in not surrendering his position in the party. He never developed a winning position for the presidency, but he realizes that as the nominee, he has a position in the party that he can build on.

Misunderstanding Positions

One of the most difficult tasks in strategy is seeing your own position objectively. Since the election, I have been looking for some sign that the Democrats recognize that they lost the election (not only the presidential, but the congressional) because they failed to establish a clear strategic position and instead choose to to attack their opponent's position. I have seen little sign of this.

Political Words versus Deeds

This is the strangest concept of strategic positioning that I have ever read in the media. No matter what Kerry or his people think, Gore's mistake in the last election was not getting enough votes in Florida. It was not what he said about the situation. Strategically, positioning arises from action. The election was delayed by Gore's action, filing suit in the Florida supreme court for a recount.

Missing the Point on Mary Cheney

Both the left and the right are missing the real error Kerry made in mentioning Mary Cheney in the last debate. He positioned himself as speaking not only for her, a woman he probably barely knows, but all gays when he isn't gay himself. Here is what he said:

"If you were to talk to Dick Cheney's daughter, who is a lesbian, she would tell
you that she's being who she was, she's being who she was born as."

Restructuring the Universe

We are watching the presidential debates via Tivo and it really changes the universe we live in. Tivo gives every person the ability to say to the president of the U.S., "Could you just hold that thought for a second while we check and see if our fish is ready for dinner?" And because of Tivo, the president of the most powerful nation on earth will stop and generously give us time to get dinner ready before he moves on. Very nice. God created us each as the center of our own personal view of reality.


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