2009 Election Lessons Learned

The most common mistake in political reporting is focusing on only one or two of the five key aspects that determine success. In the case of the 2009 election, the focus was the liberal/conservative philosophy and Obama. To understand any election, we must look at all five aspects that make up the complete package of a position: mission (our term for philosophy), climate, ground, leadership, and methods.

The Democratic victory in NY 23 demonstrates this concept of the complete package. The election wasn't approval for Democratic philosophy as Pelosi contends. The Democrat, Owens, was much, much stronger on leadership as an Air Force vet, and had a party organization behind him. The independent, Hoffman, had a unusual personality and no party organization. The differences in these two areas were simply too large to be made up by any advantages in climate, ground, and philosophy in NY23. This race, more than anything else, demonstrates why conservatives need the Republican Party for good candidates and good organization as much as the Republicans need conservatives for ground support.

The Republican victories in the governor races in NJ and VA were also less about philosophy and Obama than about trends. There is a growing trend everywhere against Democrats. Part of this may be about philosophy, but there is always a trend against the dominant party after an election. Call it buyer's remorse, or, as we do, the complementary balancing forces of nature. We saw this same balancing force work against Republicans in 2006 and 2008, but the tide has shifted.

Warrior's Rules: 

Competitive Arenas: