Eight rules describing how to making good decisions with limited information competition.
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This article explores our often unrealistic expectations about information. Before we can think about what it means to use information to make decisions to improve our position, we must be realistic about the quality of that information. There is an infinite amount of information that may be relevant to our competitive position. Much of this information is not only unknown but unknowable. We don't know all the players that can affect our situation, much less everything that they are doing or thinking that might affect us. The rules here details the chain that brings us information and why it is full of weak links. Unexpected events continually come from unforeseen directions. Information about these events is always limited. Our impressions about what is happening is filtered through our expectations, which are too often wrong. Sensory information is limited, not only by our senses, but by our focus and attention. Our mental models can filter out the wrong information. Our words never clearly express our ideas. Information is lost in communication: what is said is not necessarily what is heard. More information is lost in interpretation: what is meant is not necessarily what others think is meant.