Reacting to News


How would you analysis you have about the Stock Market today, the wall and the shutdown and the Syrian pullout/Mattis being fired. Alot of news, but i would appreciate a solid perspective.

Gary's Answer: 

First, strategically never worry about the modern, mass media News. By definition, they don't provide good information, which always comes from individuals. This is especially true because always see their job as telling us that the sky is falling. They amplify bad news and ignore the good. I like a site called HumanProgress because it puts everything in a big picture context of the rather dramatic progress we have made over the last twenty years. 

Specifics Worries: 

Stock market: it goes up and down in the short term. Long term, it goes up until the country stops going up.  The country hasn't stopped going up. Don't keep short-term money in Market. 

The Wall isn't about the wall. It is about frustrating Trump. Long-term, there will be a wall. Everyone knows it though most won't say it because their priority is frustrating Trump. Temporarily, Trump will be frustrated until frustrating him costs those doing it more than it gains them. Strategically, it is cheaper to defend than attack. Easier to build a wall than try to fix problems that no wall creates. 

Syrian/Afghan Pullout: About time. The military's job is to win and hold positions, but they will never leave a position if given the choice. We are still manning bases in Germany and Japan from WWII. Resources are limited. Priorities must be set. Bases in Germany and Japan are comfy posts to reward people with. Places like Syria are different. Endless "wars" are not wars at all because there is nothing to win at least for the nation. However, these endless wars created endless opportunities for others to pick America's pocket. In some parts of the world, people have always fought each other and always will.  It is sad, but we cannot stop that. If Syria or Kabul stop killing each other in their areas and become problems to us, we move in again. As ISIS proved, troublemakers become vulnerable once they have fixed positions and resources. But generally we want these types of people to focus on each other instead of us.