Sen. Evan Bayh Quits: The Dissipating Situation

Sen. Evan Bayh has just announced that he is quitting the Senate. Following on the recent announcement of other Democratic retirements, the political situation for Democrats is quickly becoming what we call a "dissipating" situation, one where the unity of an organization breaks down in the face of an overwhelming opposing force (6.4.1 Dissipating Situations). In this case, the public anger with government spending and corruption.

While a number of Republicans are leading as well, their departures are very different in character. They are occurring almost entirely in "safe" districts for Republicans, a least in this cycle. This means that these departures are likely to result in new Republican incumbents when climate changes to be less in their favor, as it always must (1.4.1 Climate Shift).

In contrast, it is hard to think of any Democratic seat as "safe" after Scott Brown's election in Massachusetts. In Bayh's case, his re-election was fairly likely, but only because he was a conservative Democrat. Indiana like everywhere else is polling increasingly Republican. Bayh's decision leaves only four days for a Democratic replacement to gather the necessary signatures and file to run in his place.

How to the Democrat's need to respond? Sun Tzu teaches that they must go after a position that the Rebublican's love (6.5.1 Dissipating Response). In other words, they must put Republicans on the defensive, not by attacking them directly, but by moving to take over a position that is the source of their strength. The problem is that the Democrats have no idea how to do this.

Warrior's Rules: 

Competitive Arenas: