Article PDF: 3.1.5 Unpredictable Value [1]

Seven rules how our methods must consider our limitations of predicting the value of positions.

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This article explains that, since strategy is the economics of advancing a position, moving into unoccupied and unexplored territory carries its own risk. When it comes to dealing with the unknown, there are two bad assumptions that we can make. Both lead to dangerous mistakes. First, we can think that because no one is currently occupying a position, there is no value to that position. This leads to conflict. The opposite mistakes it to think that every open territory is valuable, some kind of gold mine. This leads to another costly mistake: our waste of limited resources.